22042010

What exactly is a monthly mean?

By Eco Guy 1:31am 22nd April 2010
A lot of climate analysis is done using the monthly mean temperature. Given that data is quite often available for hourly measurements I thought I'd have a look at whether creating a monthly mean straight off all the hourly measurements would produce a difference; initial findings indicate it does.

Firstly, I'd like to state I'm all for looking after the environment and 'doing the right thing' I just get somewhat concerned when people go out of their way to 'sell' a point of view using clearly made up images.

Polar Bears on ice flows

These have been around for ages, the polar bears even longer..  For example



Anyone spot the editing? The shadow of the bear is too 'exact' on the water for starters. Secondly the waves on the right of the image continue unchanged through the bit of ice sheet..

Also there is a penguin version available; with a rather large penguin in place of the polar bear. You can also have 3 penguins.


other things on ice flows..





Apart from the obvious fact that such a structure would not stand - note the reuse of the same background..

Other Examples

Related Content Tags: climate change, measurement


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  • Steven Mosher said:

    There are several reasons why your derived value can be different from that given in GHCN.

    1. Application of a TOBS correction in ghcn. which ghcn file are you using?

    2. Averaging of duplicates in the ghcn file. for example if there are two instruments at the same location then GHCN will average these.

    3. To calculate a monthly mean ghcn does this:

    a. They take the daily min and daily max as defined by ( I believe ) a midnight time of observation. this is important and can cause differences.

    b. The min figure is rounded. the max figure is rounded ( nearest F)

    c. day ave = min+max/2. rounded. i believe, have to check the manual.

    d. days are summed to the month

    In general in studying hundreds of stations over decades you will find a difference between the "hourly" average and min/max average. But you wont find a trend bias, which is what matters.

    ON Fri, 23 Apr 10, 4:43am probably from United States  Reply to this comment

    • Eco Guy said:

      In answer,

      ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ghcn/v2/v2.mean.Z as downloaded on 21st Jan 10 for GIS model. not the _adj version. I have a ref to TOBS. I'll also try with the adjusted data.

      anyway to find out if they had multiple instruments at a location?

      wow on rounding the intermediate min/max - any reason given? Also do they define the rounding being done, i.e. nearest, up, down, 5up etc.

      Yep, there probably won't be a trend to see, but I'm actually more interested in the effect on confidence this introduces and if that varies over the months and temp ranges encountered. Easy enough for me to put in a DB and check, although wondering if this has been done before.

      ON Fri, 23 Apr 10, 8:45am probably from Australia  Reply to this comment

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