gcms, Tag

Well, now that there is a paper that states explicitly that GCMs can't predict climate, and explains why, will it make any difference?

...we might move closer to developing climate models that can truly reflect the intricacies of the Earth's climate system.

...the new NOAA data do not support a claim that warming in the troposphere has undergone a statistically-significant change in trend.

This situation is related to the replication crisis in science generally, whereby much of the literature is affected by selection and positive results bias.

Anyone who thinks that a description of reality is only worthwhile if it matches the output of absurdly simplistic climate models is not worth my time to investigate.

by Pat Frank Last February 7, statistician Richard Booth, Ph.D. (hereinafter, Rich) posted a very long critique titled, What do you mean by “mean”: an essay on black boxes, emulators, and uncertainty” which is very...

I guess sometimes you just have to throw the officially acknowledged lack of regional skill for GCM’s out the window~ctm From Nature Communications Abstract A major challenge in articulating human dimensions of climate...

A guest post by Nic Lewis A new paper in Science Advances by Cristian Proistosescu and Peter Huybers “Slow climate mode reconciles historical and model-based estimates of climate sensitivity” (hereafter PH17)...

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach In a recent issue of Science magazine there was a “Perspective” article entitled “Projecting regional change” (paywalled here)  This is the opening: Techniques to downscale global...

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I’ve continued my peregrinations following the spoor of the global climate model data cited in my last post. This was data from 19 global climate models. There are two parts to the data,...